The spring 2024 residential market is reviving, with my appraisal volume up 23% over the same period in 2023. Stable interest rates combined with seasonal buying momentum are pulling hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
The Numbers Tell the Story
In the last 45 days, I've completed 68 appraisals across Orange County. That's up 23% from the same period in 2023. More appraisals mean more transactions. More transactions mean a market that's waking up.
What's driving this? Stable interest rates combined with the traditional spring buying season. Families are thinking about buying before summer, and they're not waiting for rates to drop further because rates seem locked in.
Buyer Psychology Shifting
In 2023, buyers were hesitant. They'd heard about falling rates coming next month or next quarter. Waiting felt reasonable.
Now, after rate stability through Q1 2024, buyers are accepting the rate environment. No one's thrilled about 6.7% mortgages, but everyone's realizing they're not getting 4%. So why wait?
That shift from "maybe I'll delay" to "let's get it done" is showing up in appraisal volume.
What This Means for Appraisals
Spring market appraisals tend to be smoother than winter appraisals. More competition among buyers means more realistic pricing. Sellers have better information about what homes are actually worth because there's enough transaction data to see patterns.
When there's buyer activity, appraisals tend to support sales prices better. Low-appraisal surprises are less common in hot markets because prices adjust downward when demand softens.
Are we in a hot market yet? Not quite. But we're warming up.
Inventory Still Matters
I'm seeing slightly more inventory in neighborhoods like Huntington Beach, Long Beach, and Costa Mesa compared to late 2023. Not a flood, but more homes on the market. That helps the appraisal process because there's more recent comparable sales data.
Less inventory scarcity means less desperation in pricing. Appraisals are more likely to come in aligned with offers.
The Wildcard: Rate Cuts
If the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts coming in late 2024, we could see another surge of activity. Buyers who've been waiting for rate cuts might flood the market. That would heat things up considerably.
But that's still a "if." Right now, we're working with stable rates and normal spring seasonality.
What Sellers Should Know
If you've been thinking about listing in spring, conditions are favorable. There's enough buyer activity to generate competition, but not so much that you need to accept the first offer. It's a balanced market.
Appraisals in this environment are likely to support reasonable offers. Overpriced homes will still appraise low, but homes priced competitively should appraise close to sale price.
What Buyers Should Know
Spring means competition. Homes are sitting on market longer than they did in 2023, but good homes still move. Don't assume you have endless time to make offers.
Get your financing pre-approved, understand your appraisal contingency, and be ready to move when you find something. The market's warming, but it's not fire-sale competitive.
The spring market revival is real but measured. After a brutal 2023, measured feels like progress.