Summer 2024 market momentum was stronger than expected, with stable rates around 6.5-7%, improved inventory, and rising transaction volume carrying into fall. After a weak 2023, the Southern California market is genuinely recovering.
The Numbers
In August 2024, I completed 76 appraisals across Orange County. That's my highest monthly volume since October 2022. Not massive, but it's a clear signal that transaction activity is picking up.
More appraisals mean more closings, which means more market movement.
Why Summer 2024 Was Stronger
A few factors converged:
Stable Rates: By late spring, rates had settled around 6.5-7%. That stability let buyers commit to decisions instead of waiting for rates to drop further.
Inventory Improvement: With more homes on the market, buyers had choices. Less desperation means more rational decision-making.
Seasonality: Summer is always stronger for real estate. Families want to move before schools start. The seasonal effect is normal.
Market Confidence: After the trauma of 2023, spring and summer 2024 showed the market wasn't collapsing. That confidence encouraged people to act.
What I'm Seeing in Current Appraisals
Summer appraisals are coming in close to sales prices. That's a sign of healthy market pricing. Homes aren't wildly overpriced. Buyers aren't overpaying on speculation.
I'm also seeing fewer appraisals coming in way below sales prices, which was common in 2023. That tells me the disconnect between buyer expectations and market reality has narrowed.
Healthy.
Geographic Patterns
Orange County inventory-rich areas (Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Cypress) had strong summer activity. Coastal properties (Newport Beach, Laguna Beach) had selective but steady activity.
Inland areas (Irvine, Riverside) had strong activity with investor interest.
No part of my market was booming, but all parts were active.
The Refinance Question
Refinance activity picked up moderately in summer. Not a flood, but more than in 2023. Homeowners felt confident enough to explore equity access and rate opportunities.
I expect refinance activity to soften in fall as we move away from the optimal summer timing. But the fact that it's happening at all is positive.
Fall 2024 Outlook
As we head into fall, the question is: Does summer momentum persist?
I think it does, moderately. Fall is traditionally slower than summer, but the market has enough momentum that fall 2024 should be better than fall 2023.
The real test is what happens if rates start moving. If rates jump to 8% or drop to 5%, momentum changes dramatically.
But on current trajectory, fall 2024 will be decent.
What This Means
The "is the market going to crash?" conversation is largely over. The market isn't crashing. It's recovering. Slowly, steadily, with ups and downs.
That's exactly how healthy markets work.
For sellers: Conditions are good. Inventory is reasonable, buyers are active, and appraisals support fair pricing.
For buyers: You have choices. Summer and early fall are good windows to make moves without intense competition.
For appraisers: More volume, better data, more interesting market dynamics. I'm busier than I was in 2023, which is a welcome change.
The momentum is real. It might not feel like a boom, but it's definitely recovery.