Fall 2018 shifted the market toward buyers as Orange County inventory grew to 5+ months, giving buyers more choices and stronger negotiating leverage than they'd had in years.
Inventory Grows as Expected
By fall, I forecast 4.5-5.5 months inventory. We're at that level now.
Why inventory is up:
- Summer sales absorption complete: Homes that sold in spring/summer are gone. New sellers entering, replacing sold inventory.
- September surge: Labor Day traditionally brings new listings.
- Seller urgency grows: Q4 closes create year-end tax implications. Some sellers accelerating listings.
More inventory means more choice for buyers and less seller leverage.
Days on Market Increasing
Homes are sitting longer:
- August average: 16 days
- October average: 22-24 days
That's 50% longer selling time, indicating softer demand.
Longer days-on-market support lower prices in my appraisals.
Comparable Sales Softening
Recent sales show:
- Average prices: Down 2-3% from summer peak
- Price reductions: 18-20% of listings
- Expired listings: Increasing (listings not sold before expiration)
My appraisals reflect this softening through comparable sales data.
Buyer Psychology Shift
In fall, buyers become more deliberate:
- Less competition: Fewer competing offers
- More negotiating room: Sellers more flexible
- Price scrutiny: Buyers can be pickier with more inventory
This is buyer-favorable market.
Appraisal Implications
In 2018 fall appraisals, I'm seeing:
- Wider value ranges from comparables (not all sales agree as much)
- More price variation suggesting market volatility
- Seasonal adjustments needed more carefully
Fall markets require more thoughtful appraisal analysis.
Interest Rate Effect
Mortgage rates are rising. By October, rates hit 4.7%+ (up from 3.8% early 2018).
Higher rates reduce buying power, dampening demand. This shows in appraisals through comparable sales.
For Fall Sellers and Buyers
Sellers: Price competitively. 2018 fall rewards realistic pricing. Overpriced homes sit.
Buyers: More leverage than summer. Negotiate firmly. Inventory gives you options.
Appraisers: Standard fall patterns emerging. Value softening predictable and healthy.
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Fall market shifting? Understand your appraisal value in current conditions. Contact me.