October is traditionally slower than summer, but 2024 is different. Fall activity is holding steadier than usual, which signals real market recovery—not just seasonal bounce.
Fall Activity Compared to Summer
In October 2024, I'm completing 62 appraisals. That's down from August's 76, but it's up 34% from October 2023 (46 appraisals).
That's a meaningful difference. It tells me buyers and sellers aren't panicking about timing. Fall is slower than summer because families aren't moving for school (that happens summer). But families considering moving for other reasons are still acting.
Who's Buying in Fall?
Fall buyers have different motivations than summer buyers:
- Job relocations: People who've landed new jobs want to move before the holidays
- Divorce buyers: Some people prefer to finalize real estate deals before year-end for tax reasons
- Downsizers: Older homeowners moving to smaller properties often do it in fall
- Investors: People moving equity from one property to another via 1031 exchanges (tax year deadline is December)
None of these groups are as numerous as summer families, but they're active.
Market Stabilization Signal
The fact that fall 2024 is still reasonably active tells me the market has stabilized at a new baseline. We're not in a boom (that would be 100+ appraisals monthly), and we're not in crisis (that would be 30 appraisals monthly).
We're in normal. That's healthy.
Appraisal Quality in Fall
Fall appraisals are coming in solid. Homes are appraising within 2-3% of sales prices. That's tight and suggests realistic pricing market-wide.
I'm not seeing the low-appraisal surprises that plagued 2023. That tells me sellers have adjusted expectations and buyers are offering rational prices.
Rate Environment Holding
Interest rates have stayed in the 6.5-7% band through October. That stability is enabling planning. If rates jumped to 8%, we'd see activity crater. If they dropped to 5%, we'd see a rush.
Stability is underrated as a market driver. It just lets people plan.
What This Means for Your Plans
If you're thinking about selling before year-end, fall 2024 is still a decent window. Inventory is moderate, buyers are active, and appraisals will support fair pricing.
If you're thinking about buying, fall offers less competition than summer but still reasonable selection.
If you're refinancing, the rate environment is still accessible at 6.5-7%.
Nothing is exciting. But nothing is scary either.
Q4 2024 Outlook
I expect November and December to slow as holiday approaches. That's normal seasonality.
But the baseline activity level we've established through fall 2024 is higher than 2023's baseline. That tells me 2025 is shaping up to be a better year.
For now, fall 2024 is meeting expectations. Not booming, but steady.
Steady is the goal.